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A2Steve

A2OC Donor
Wales
With the legal move to electric only new car sales being just 9 years away, where does that leave us?

Whilst I completely agree with the need to move away from fossil fuels, I somewhat see the change as a shutting down of the petrolhead movement.

Had things continued as they were, the model based car communities would rise and fall as new makes and models were released the way they always have. But we are now at a very important point in history. This is the end of the internal combustion engine for the masses. Every model now on the road is therefore on a trajectory to extinction and we are all now driving a piece of motoring history.

The mass Euro-boxes are no real loss to anyone, but the special cars, the cars that were revolutionary when released or those that had something special about them therefore need to be preserved. I think the A2 definitely falls into this category and along with it comes our responsibility to preserve the good ones as much as possible because they are a part of motoring history.

I’d like to know others thoughts on this, what does the next 8-12 years hold?
 
With the legal move to electric only new car sales being just 9 years away, where does that leave us?

Whilst I completely agree with the need to move away from fossil fuels, I somewhat see the change as a shutting down of the petrolhead movement.

Had things continued as they were, the model based car communities would rise and fall as new makes and models were released the way they always have. But we are now at a very important point in history. This is the end of the internal combustion engine for the masses. Every model now on the road is therefore on a trajectory to extinction and we are all now driving a piece of motoring history.

The mass Euro-boxes are no real loss to anyone, but the special cars, the cars that were revolutionary when released or those that had something special about them therefore need to be preserved. I think the A2 definitely falls into this category and along with it comes our responsibility to preserve the good ones as much as possible because they are a part of motoring history.

I’d like to know others thoughts on this, what does the next 8-12 years hold?
My personal view is that the move to electrification is far less of a threat than the car industry’s apparent fascination with autonomous driving. Electrification of a drivers car could be considered as an evolution of the ‘petrol head’ or driver movement. Autonomous vehicles are not. They are it’s nemesis.
 
I think that for the next ten years, fuels will still be available, I won’t live in a city and I will always have a need a cheap to run car thats an excellent long-distance machine.

Therefore I don’t need to really worry about the future of both my cars as they are both going to be kept going as long as possible.

I wouldn’t buy a brand new pure ICE car now though. Then again I don’t like wasting money so I would never buy a brand new car except if I knew I would never sell while it still works!
 
I agree with @A2Steve and preserving our ICE cars very important and part of the reason for me buying mine was to a get a good one and make it perfect (for me) and then keep it forever.

Whilst the ban on selling new ICE cars is coming, it’s not going to stop us driving our ICE cars after 2030. The future problem will be legislation whereby they could ban them from city centres, they could raise fuel duty and taxes exponentially or they may introduce prohibitive road charging for ICE cars (discrimination). The current problem we have at the moment is the pandemic that’s resulted in government debt at levels never before seen, tax take will go up to pay for it and the motorist is the easy target for and I suspect ICE cars will get the brunt of it.

Ultimately we need to enjoy them and preserve them but also have a viable electric conversion solution for those of us that need to use our A2’s every day as I feel classics will get a ‘stay of execution’ on a mileage limited basis.

My goal is to enjoy the A2 and share with like minded people like everyone here.
 
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I agree with @A2Steve and preserving our ICE cars very important and part of the reason for me buying mine was to a get a good one and make it perfect (for me) and then keep it forever.

Whilst the ban on selling new ICE cars is coming, it’s not going to stop us driving our ICE cars after 2030. The problem will be legislation whereby they could ban them from city centres, they could raise fuel duty and taxes exponentially or they may introduce prohibitive road charging for ICE cars (discrimination). The problem we have at the moment is the pandemic that’s resulted in government debt at levels never before seen, tax take will go up to pay for it and the motorist is the easy target for and I suspect ICE cars will get the brunt of it.

Ultimately we need to enjoy them and preserve them but also have a viable electric conversion solution for those of us that need to use our A2’s every day as I feel classics will get a ‘stay of execution’ on a mileage limited basis.

My goal is to enjoy the A2 and share with like minded people like everyone here.
A number of excellent points.

I think the peak for ICE has already been reached in terms of its evolution however I see no reason that the existing ICE vehicles won’t continue to be enjoyed long term.

There is an argument that a massive reduction in the use of oil over the next 20 plus years could actually ensure the supply of fuel for those ‘classic’ or enthusiast type cars will actually be extended. The bigger question is one of demand. Once a generation of people come about who have never experienced driving an ICE vehicle, how does the flame of passion to keep said vehicles running get fanned? I’ve heard lots of anecdotes from people with teenage kids who appear to have no interest in even learning to drive let alone an aspiration to own a car.

Given ICE’s have been demonised as a killing the planet then a lack of interest is the biggest threat but that is probably 50 years away and a bigger risk to those who think it’s a sensible investment to spend £10m on a particular Ferrari et al!
 
How many on here remember seeing steam powered lorries and traction engines on the highway! (I know I am not the oldest on this site)
When ICE powered vehicles took over from horses and steam, all of the old traction engines were scrapped and sold for pennies. (Much the same on the railways when diesel took over from steam).
Those traction engines today fetch many thousands amongst enthusiasts. The big problem there is the age of the enthusiasts. Not sure the fascination will spill over into younger generations so interest may die away again.
The situation with Motor cars may well be different possible just because of the shear volume and ubiquity of them.
 
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I think @Sootywg is right, about the next generations not inheriting our enthusiasm for ICE vehicles. We should enjoy them for what they are, not what they might (or, might not) become.
I'm fairly sure I'll be past caring before running my A2 and Mk1 TT becomes impossible. Let's get this virus beaten, and then enjoy everything that's important to us while we can. It's an old saw, but very true none the less, "tomorrow never comes..."
If you really want to do something, then get on with it. If not? You'll never know will you.
Mac.
 
My opinion is, as long as running an old ICE car is sustainable then that has less environmental impact than scrapping them and forcing people to buy new EV's.
Didn't I read somewhere that an EV doesn't become more environmentally friendly until it has traveled 76K miles?

My old dirty diesel Euro 6 Macan will be staying for the time being at least. It produces less CO2 than the equivalent petrol version, but that seems to have been forgotten about since the VW diesel scam.

Ian
 
I think we've got a LONG time to go yet...

Example - My Scirocco uses 4* petrol exclusively. Not the additive version, proper good ol' 4*. It costs me a small fortune (about 3x the price of unleaded), but it IS still available from certain outlets around the UK 30 years after being made unavailable.
 
I think we've got a LONG time to go yet...

I'm with Jeremy on that. Additionally I think that diesel is going to be available the longest, despite the pollutants it generates - but I wouldn't bet against extra taxes/duties for non-commercial use. They need to get all the ICE lorries off the road before they can take diesel out of mainstream availability, and as yet they've only banned new ICE cars from 2030. Hydrogen fuel cells are probably the way forward there, that said the latest hydrogen buses yet announced still only have a range of 200-250 miles. This is perfect for a vehicle serving within a large city that returns to a depot every night, but there's still some way to go before a national long-distance coach service could be run on hydrogen, let alone independent haulage businesses.
 
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Where does the power come from for everybody to charge vehicles every night? (Grids already close to capacity)
Not everyone can park outside their own homes to charge?
Ones i have driven are totally useless in the snow.
I feel a U turn coming!!
 
Where does the power come from for everybody to charge vehicles every night? (Grids already close to capacity)

I don't think this will be too much of an issue going forward, with more wind farms and a huge nuclear plant being built there will be more power than we can use at night.

Not everyone can park outside their own homes to charge?

I do think this is a major issue until very rapid charging batteries become available. The current charging network is very disjointed and needs to be massively improved.

Ones i have driven are totally useless in the snow.

Our Leaf, with All Season tyres on, is fantastic in the snow. The fact you can very gently apply the torque (no having to slip the clutch) means it's easy not to spin the wheels. My biggest worry is the weight of the car if it ever lets go, but it's always been very reassuring on the white stuff.
 
A local bus Co has a fleet of electric buses. In order to charge the fleet overnight, they have had to install, in the depot, a huge battery, that is charged during the working day, and then the stored energy charges the buses overnight! The grid simply can't deliver the required capacity to charge the fleet in real time.
In a similar vein, the cable to our (1980s) house can only supply 100 amps, that's 25 kW. At present, heating and hot water is provided by a gas boiler. The boiler has a capacity of 25 kW. In future, gas boilers are verboten, and all power just come from electricity. A modest electric car, charging overnight would require at least 10 kW. Lighting, cooking (no gas oven) and laundry, let's say another 10 kW.
Even assuming the demand is spread out, the supply cable is not able to supply the demand. Same will apply to the cables to the sub station, the local supply network (and beyond).
Talk about infrastructure projects, this is a big (and expensive) example, just waiting for kick off.
I think petrol and diesel will be around a while yet.
Mac.
 
Harry's Garage has a good video that covers some of the issues surrounding this:

Simon.
 
In a similar vein, the cable to our (1980s) house can only supply 100 amps, that's 25 kW. At present, heating and hot water is provided by a gas boiler. The boiler has a capacity of 25 kW. In future, gas boilers are verboten, and all power just come from electricity. A modest electric car, charging overnight would require at least 10 kW. Lighting, cooking (no gas oven) and laundry, let's say another 10 kW

Most EVs charge at 7 kW on a domestic supply (32A), so 100 Amp house supply is fine, but some houses don't have this much and need an upgraded supply. The other potential issue is the size of the local area main.

If domestic heating goes to air/ground source heat pumps, then they don't take too much power to run, as you are running a compressor, not a heating element. It will be interesting to see how this develops, as gas boilers are due to be outlawed before petrol/diesel cars and the replacement technology is less developed/available!
 
I read an article on page 2 of Tuesday's Daily Telegraph (19/1/2021) It was VERY interesting and I'd have liked to have shown the complete article, but this was the gist of it ..... I read that a novel battery (lithium ion phosphate) has been developed that can be fully charged in 10 minutes and give a comfortable range of 250 miles. It's also said to produce a large amount of power in seconds and to have a lifespan of 2 million miles. A vehicle with this type of battery could go from zero to 60 mph in 3 seconds It has cost parity with combustion-engined vehicles. No, it's NOT April the First! :) So that's it, then The future IS electric!

David
 
Here is the complete article :
An ELECTRIC car battery which charges in 10 minutes, allowing 250 miles of driving, has been developed. The lithium ion phosphate battery can quickly heat up and cool down - key to rapid charging and long life, scientists say. While electric cars are becoming increasingly popular in the UK, the fear of running out of power while travelling remains a deterrent for motorists. Scientists at Penn State University in the U.S. have now invented a battery which matches a Porsche's performance and lasts a lifetime. Prof Chao-Yang Wang, of the University, said "We developed a pretty clever battery for mass-market electric vehicles with cost parity with combustion-engine vehicles. There is no more range anxiety and this battery is affordable".
The battery produces a large amount of power in seconds and has a lifespan of two million miles, the researchers say.
Prof Wang added : "These smaller batteries can produce a large amount of power on heating - 40 kilowatt hours and 300 kilowatts of power. An electric vehicle with this battery could go from zero to 60 miles per hour in three seconds and would drive like a Porsche. I am very happy that we finally found a battery that will benefit the mainstream consumer mass market."

David
 
Wow that’s a bit of a game changer isn’t it David. I think the majority of people who would consider an electric car are waiting for the right moment when technology has reached the right point to make it as viable an option as ICE. This could well bring about that change for it to be adopted by the mass market.
 
But I think I also read that the new wonder battery requires a different and more advanced charging infrastructure.
 
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